Sunday, May 12, 2013

Energy Forecasting Activities at PESGM2013

As a fundamental problem in the utility industry, energy forecasting has applications across all sectors of the industry and most departments of a utility. I'm a big advocate of "understanding the business needs before developing the forecasts". In my earlier post, Three Skills of an Ideal Energy Forecaster, I put down "broad and deep understanding of utility business operations and needs" as the first skill. How to develop such a skill?

One way is to attend conferences, not forecasting conferences, but "general" conferences, where we can meet a broad range of utility professionals working in different areas.
One of the largest conferences in the utility industry is IEEE Power and Energy Society General Meeting (PESGM). I've been regularly attending this conference since 2008. Each time I learned a lot of new things. The attendees are mainly from utilities, vendors, consulting firms and universities. There are usually hundreds of talks on various of subjects, such as energy market, reliability, system planning and power engineering.
To energy forecasters, the deal is even sweeter at PESGM2013 (Vancuvour, BC, Canada, July 21-25) than before, because of over twenty forecasting talks below:
IEEE Tutorial - Energy Forecasting in the Smart Grid Era
Sunday, July 21, 8:00 - 17:00
1. Fundamentals of energy forecasting, Tao Hong, SAS, USA
2. Short term load forecasting, Tao Hong, SAS, USA
3. Long term load forecasting, Shu Fan, Monash University, Australia
4. Electricity price forecasting, Hamidreza Zareipour, University of Calgary, Canada
5. Wind power forecasting, Pierre Pinson, Technical University of Denmark, Denmark
Panel Session - Energy Forecasting: the State of the Art
Chair: Tao Hong, SAS, USA
Monday, July 22, 13:00 - 17:00
1. Load curve data cleansing methodologies and tool, Adriel Lau, BC Hydro, Canada
2. Load forecasting in Australian energy market, Shu Fan, Monash University, Australia
3. Long term probabilistic load forecasting at NCEMC, Jason Wilson, North Carolina Electric Membership Corporation, USA
4. Knowing one's limits - a DR forecaster's challenge, Jeremy Donnell, PG&E, USA
5. Modeling and forecasting toward the optimization of regional operation of PHEV charging stations, Wei-Jen Lee, University of Texas - Arlington, USA
6. Price forecasting in modern power grids, Hamidreza Zareipour, University of Calgary, Canada
7. State of the art in wind power forecasting: operations and market perspectives, Pierre Pinson, Technical University of Denmark, Denmark
Panel Session - Global Energy Forecasting Competition (GEFCom2012) Final Presentations
Chair: Tao Hong, SAS, USA
Tuesday, July 23, 13:00 - 18:00
1. Global Energy Forecasting Competition: an introduction, Tao Hong, SAS, USA
2. GEFCom2012 hierarchical load forecasting: exploratory data analysis, Stuart McMenamin, Itron, USA
3. GEFCom2012 hierarchical load forecasting: a gradient boosting approach, Souhaib Ben Taieb, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Belgium
4. GEFCom2012 hierarchical load forecasting using multi-scale semi-parametric models, Raphael Nédellec, EDF R&D, France
5. GEFCom2012 hierarchical load forecasting using gradient boosting machines and Gaussian process regression, James Robert Lloyd, University of Cambridge, UK
6. GEFCom2012 hierarchical load forecasting using a refined parametric model, Colin Singleton, CountingLab Ltd, UK
7. GEFCom2012 wind power forecasting: an ensemble forecasting approach with Gaussian processes and Neural Networks, Duehee Lee, University of Texas at Austin, USA
8. GEFCom2012 wind power forecasting using Gradient Boosting Machines, Gabor I. Nagy, Budapest University of Technology and Economics, Hungary
9. GEFCom2012 wind power forecasting: a hybrid approach, Matt Wytock, Carnegie Mellon University, USA
10. GEFCom2012 wind power forecasting: a k-nearest neighbors approach, Ekaterina Mangalova, Siberian State Aerospace University, Russia
11. GEFCom2012 wind power forecasting: a feature engineering approach, Lucas Eustaquio, DTI Sistemas, Brazil
In addition, I'll be giving a talk at the following session:
Panel Session - Power System Planning in the Smart Grid Era
Chair: ML Chan, ML Consulting Group, USA
Wednesday, July 24, 8:00 - 12:00 
Opportunities and challenges of Energy Forecasting in the Smart Grid Era, Tao Hong, SAS, USA
I'm sure there are more forecasting related talks than the ones above. I'll update this post as soon as I pick them up from the technical program.

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