Tuesday, November 6, 2018

Leaderboard for BFCom2018 Qualifying Match!!!

The forecast submission due date for Qualifying Match of BigDEAL Forecasting Competition 2018 was Nov 4, 2018. Out of 81 teams who registered the competition, 39 teams successfully submitted their forecasts by the due date. 10 teams will be advanced to the final match together with my Energy Analytics class of 2018 including 5 master and PhD students plus the teaching assistant Masoud Sobhani.

Two methods are used to calculate the MAPE of the forecasts. The first one is the direct calculation of Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) based on the raw forecast submitted by each team, which was originally announced The other is based on bias-adjusted forecast, which is calculated by dividing the hourly load forecast by the coincident monthly energy, and then multiplying it by the actual monthly energy of that month. For each measure, the MAPE of the last ranked in-class student is used as the qualifying bar. A team outperforming either bar can be advanced to the final match.

The figure below shows the leaderboard for BFCom2018 Qualifying Match. The green highlighted ones are in-class students, while the qualifying bar for each measure is in bold. The teams above the red line are the finalists. The "Ranking (BOTH)" column lists the rankings based on the sum of two rankings from both measures.

BigDEAL Forecasting Competition 2018 - Qualifying Match Leaderboard

Congratulations to the BFCom2018 finalists! A tougher problem is waiting for them in the final match :)

p.s., I will organize a series of follow-up events for the winners to present their methodologies. For more information about this qualifying match, please keep an eye on the FAQ page

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