Probabilistic Energy Forecasting: Global Energy Forecasting Competition 2014 and Beyond

It is really hard to write an introduction for this paper, because there are too many things to highlight the outcome of hundreds of hours invested by the organizers of GEFCom2014 and thousands of hours spent by the GEFCom2014 contestants. In one sentence,

This is a MUST READ paper in energy forecasting. 

In this paper, we

• Summarized 7 papers collected through the special issue CFP process, including one on anomaly detection for gas demand data, two on load forecasting, two on price forecasting, one on wave energy forecasting, and one on wind speed forecasting;
• Introduced the GEFCom2014 together with the in-class probabilistic load forecasting competition I organized in 2015;
• Commented on the methodologies used by the winning teams of GEFCom2014;
• Published the 120MB data used in the four tracks of GEFCom2014 and the in-class competition;
• Made 12 predictions for the next decade of energy forecasting

We sincerely hope that you enjoy reading this paper and can help contribute to the energy forecasting community.

Citation

Tao Hong, Pierre Pinson, Shu Fan, Hamidreza Zareipour, Alberto Troccoli and Rob J. Hyndman, "Probabilistic energy forecasting: Global Energy Forecasting Competition 2014 and beyond", International Journal of Forecasting, in press. working paper available from http://www.drhongtao.com/articles.

Probabilistic Energy Forecasting: Global Energy Forecasting Competition 2014 and Beyond

Tao Hong, Pierre Pinson, Shu Fan, Hamidreza Zareipour, Alberto Troccoli, and Rob J Hyndman

Abstract

The energy industry has been going through a significant modernization process over the last decade. Its infrastructure is being upgraded rapidly. The supply, demand and prices are becoming more volatile and less predictable than ever before. Even its business model is being challenged fundamentally. In this competitive and dynamic environment, many decision-making processes rely on probabilistic forecasts to quantify the uncertain future. Although most of the papers in the energy forecasting literature focus on point or single-valued forecasts, the research interest in probabilistic energy forecasting research has taken off rapidly in recent years. In this paper, we summarize the recent research progress on probabilistic energy forecasting. A major portion of the paper is devoted to introducing the Global Energy Forecasting Competition 2014 (GEFCom2014), a probabilistic energy forecasting competition with four tracks on load, price, wind and solar forecasting, which attracted 581 participants from 61 countries. We conclude the paper with 12 predictions for the next decade of energy forecasting.