Saturday, September 26, 2015

Fall 2015 In-class Short Term Load Forecasting Competition

Update: The final ranking is available HERE.

This semester, I'm teaching my Energy Analytics course. The first exam is a short term load forecasting competition for the Dominion load zone under PJM. The competition rules are listed below:
  1. The competition will start on 10/5/2015, and end on 10/9/2015. 
  2. The exam is individual effort. Each student form a single-person team. No collaboration is allowed.
  3. The day-ahead hourly load forecast is due on 11:45am ET each day. The first forecast of 24 hourly loads for 10/6/2015 is due on 11:45am 10/5/2015. The fifth and last forecast of 24 hourly loads for 10/10/2015 is due on 11:45am 10/9/2015.
  4. The student can use any data (load, weather, calendar, economy, location, etc.) they can find to make the forecast as accurate as possible.
  5. MAPE is the error measure in this competition. The preliminary MAPE is calculated on daily basis using preliminary hourly load data published by PJM. The final MAPE is calculated using historical metered load data published by PJM in November.The final rankings and scores are based on the final MAPE. 
  6. The benchmark is the day-ahead load forecast released by PJM on 11:45am ET each day. A student receive no credit if not beating the benchmark nor ranking top 6 in the class. No late submission is allowed. 
I would like to open this competition to students and professionals outside my class. If you are interested in joining the competition, please contact me for detailed instructions. 

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