Over the past few years, THE most frequently asked question I have received is like the following:
My forecast error is x percent, how is the accuracy compared with my peers'?Of course, each question was packaged with details about the jurisdictions and maybe model setups. At first I was trying to provide a customized response every time. Three years ago, I gave a webinar to cover very basic error measures used in load forecasting, which was apparently not enough to cover all the load forecast error/accuracy questions. Last week, after getting another email inquiry about forecasting accuracy, I decided to start this new series of blog posts. It will be the same style as the growing list of load forecasting terminology. The first 8 topics are listed below:
- How accurate is my forecast? (recorded webinar)
- Factors affecting load forecast accuracy
- Temperature-based models vs. time series models
- More about weather variables
- How to measure load forecast errors?
- Accuracy of ISO/RTO short-term forecasts
- What a mess! Problems with reporting long term forecast errors
- Models for benchmarking
- Which techniques are "more accurate"?
- How much are we saving from 1% error reduction?
- That magic ruler may not work this year