Saturday, February 28, 2015

Error Analysis in Load Forecasting: The Second Growing List

Over the past few years, THE most frequently asked question I have received is like the following:
My forecast error is x percent, how is the accuracy compared with my peers'?
Of course, each question was packaged with details about the jurisdictions and maybe model setups. At first I was trying to provide a customized response every time. Three years ago, I gave a webinar to cover very basic error measures used in load forecasting, which was apparently not enough to cover all the load forecast error/accuracy questions. Last week, after getting another email inquiry about forecasting accuracy, I decided to start this new series of blog posts. It will be the same style as the growing list of load forecasting terminology. The first 8 topics are listed below:
  1. How accurate is my forecast? (recorded webinar)
  2. Factors affecting load forecast accuracy
  3. Temperature-based models vs. time series models
  4. More about weather variables
  5. How to measure load forecast errors?
  6. Accuracy of ISO/RTO short-term forecasts
  7. What a mess! Problems with reporting long term forecast errors
  8. Models for benchmarking
  9. Which techniques are "more accurate"?
  10. How much are we saving from 1% error reduction? 
  11. That magic ruler may not work this year
I will add the links as I finish the posts. If you have any feedback, just email me or leave your thoughts in the comment field below. I will update the list accordingly. 

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