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The ultimate test of documentation quality is whether the forecasting system has been described in detail so that other people with relevant education background and experience can reproduce the forecasts.\n\nWhile forecasting is like an adventure, exploring an unknown trail, "},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/blog.drhongtao.com\/feeds\/5394084114114391429\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/blog.drhongtao.com\/2014\/11\/documentation-in-load-forecasting.html#comment-form","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/8877300363130773882\/posts\/default\/5394084114114391429"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/8877300363130773882\/posts\/default\/5394084114114391429"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/blog.drhongtao.com\/2014\/11\/documentation-in-load-forecasting.html","title":"Documentation in Load Forecasting: 4 Reasons and 8 Elements"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Tao Hong"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/09489402674214644453"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"http:\/\/img2.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8877300363130773882.post-7729559147294287031"},"published":{"$t":"2014-11-20T11:11:00.000-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2014-12-17T14:09:51.722-05:00"},"category":[{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"fundamentals"},{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"terminology"}],"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Load Factor, Coincidence Factor, Diversity factor and Responsibility Factor"},"summary":{"type":"text","$t":"\nLoad factor is average load of a system divided by its peak load. The higher the load factor is, the smoother the load profile is, and the more the infrastructure is being utilized. The highest possible load factor is 1, which indicates a flat load profile.\n\nIn the old days, load factor is often used for long term peak demand forecasting. The forecasters first develop a energy forecast. They "},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/blog.drhongtao.com\/feeds\/7729559147294287031\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/blog.drhongtao.com\/2014\/11\/load-factor-coincidence-factor-diversity-factor-responsibility-factor.html#comment-form","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/8877300363130773882\/posts\/default\/7729559147294287031"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/8877300363130773882\/posts\/default\/7729559147294287031"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/blog.drhongtao.com\/2014\/11\/load-factor-coincidence-factor-diversity-factor-responsibility-factor.html","title":"Load Factor, Coincidence Factor, Diversity factor and Responsibility Factor"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Tao Hong"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/09489402674214644453"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"http:\/\/img2.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8877300363130773882.post-1030957379837444987"},"published":{"$t":"2014-11-18T23:53:00.000-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2014-11-19T22:00:17.280-05:00"},"category":[{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"best practices"},{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"fundamentals"},{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"terminology"},{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"weather"}],"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Standard Time, Daylight Saving Time and Local Time"},"summary":{"type":"text","$t":"\n\nThe earth is round like a ball. When it's night in the US, it's morning in China. To do business beyond a local region, people need a common reference to communicate time. Standard time is the synchronization of clocks in different geographical locations within a time zone to a common time standard, usually based on the meridian at the center of the time zone.\n\nDaylight saving time (DST) "},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/blog.drhongtao.com\/feeds\/1030957379837444987\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/blog.drhongtao.com\/2014\/11\/standard-time-daylight-saving-time-local-time.html#comment-form","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/8877300363130773882\/posts\/default\/1030957379837444987"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/8877300363130773882\/posts\/default\/1030957379837444987"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/blog.drhongtao.com\/2014\/11\/standard-time-daylight-saving-time-local-time.html","title":"Standard Time, Daylight Saving Time and Local Time"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Tao Hong"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/09489402674214644453"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"http:\/\/img2.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8877300363130773882.post-7602219985589648634"},"published":{"$t":"2014-11-11T21:02:00.003-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2014-11-11T21:05:02.822-05:00"},"category":[{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"fundamentals"},{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"terminology"}],"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Prediction Interval and Confidence Interval"},"summary":{"type":"text","$t":"\nThis is a pair of terms very difficult to distinguish, because statisticians and economists don't follow the same standard. Since load forecasting falls under the umbrella of forecasting, I'm following the terminology developed by the forecasting community. Special thanks to Rob Hyndman, who answered many questions from me during my preparation of this post. I highly recommend you his two blog "},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/blog.drhongtao.com\/feeds\/7602219985589648634\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/blog.drhongtao.com\/2014\/11\/prediction-interval-confidence-interval.html#comment-form","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/8877300363130773882\/posts\/default\/7602219985589648634"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/8877300363130773882\/posts\/default\/7602219985589648634"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/blog.drhongtao.com\/2014\/11\/prediction-interval-confidence-interval.html","title":"Prediction Interval and Confidence Interval"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Tao Hong"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/09489402674214644453"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"http:\/\/img2.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8877300363130773882.post-5789693448154637148"},"published":{"$t":"2014-11-07T07:30:00.000-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2014-11-17T12:11:45.592-05:00"},"category":[{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"fundamentals"},{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"terminology"},{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"weather"}],"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Weather, Climate and Temperature"},"summary":{"type":"text","$t":"\nWeather is the condition of the atmosphere, such as temperature, humidity and rainfall, at a particular place over a short period of time, i.e., a few days. For instance, a weather forecast usually goes a few days ahead. Climate refers to the weather pattern of a place over a long period, i.e., a few decades or more. A well-known term is \"climate change\".\n\nIn load forecasting, the most "},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/blog.drhongtao.com\/feeds\/5789693448154637148\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/blog.drhongtao.com\/2014\/11\/weather-climate-temperature.html#comment-form","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/8877300363130773882\/posts\/default\/5789693448154637148"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/8877300363130773882\/posts\/default\/5789693448154637148"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/blog.drhongtao.com\/2014\/11\/weather-climate-temperature.html","title":"Weather, Climate and Temperature"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Tao Hong"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/09489402674214644453"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"http:\/\/img2.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8877300363130773882.post-6209854632390373224"},"published":{"$t":"2014-11-05T21:19:00.000-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2014-11-11T20:52:43.363-05:00"},"category":[{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"fundamentals"},{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"terminology"}],"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Quantile, Quartile and Percentile"},"summary":{"type":"text","$t":"\nSuppose we have a set of data sorted in ascending order,  by dividing the data into q equal-sized pieces, we can get q-quantiles. The quantiles are the values marking the boundaries between two adjacent subsets.\n\nHere is an example: Using 15 years of historical weather data to forecast next year's annual peak, we can create 15 scenarios, which lead to 15 forecasted annual peaks for the next year"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/blog.drhongtao.com\/feeds\/6209854632390373224\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/blog.drhongtao.com\/2014\/11\/quantile-quartile-percentile.html#comment-form","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/8877300363130773882\/posts\/default\/6209854632390373224"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/8877300363130773882\/posts\/default\/6209854632390373224"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/blog.drhongtao.com\/2014\/11\/quantile-quartile-percentile.html","title":"Quantile, Quartile and Percentile"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Tao Hong"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/09489402674214644453"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"http:\/\/img2.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8877300363130773882.post-4562623232119501194"},"published":{"$t":"2014-11-04T08:00:00.000-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2014-11-19T20:43:03.642-05:00"},"category":[{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"fundamentals"},{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"terminology"}],"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Reliability (for Planning) and Reliability (for Forecasting)"},"summary":{"type":"text","$t":"\nMy first job interview in the US was with Richard Brown. At that time, I knew virtually nothing about the electric power industry. To prepare for the interview, I checked Richard's profile, and found out that he is a Fellow of IEEE for his contribution in power systems reliability. I also browsed through his book Electric Power Distribution Reliability, a must-read book in power systems "},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/blog.drhongtao.com\/feeds\/4562623232119501194\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/blog.drhongtao.com\/2014\/11\/reliability.html#comment-form","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/8877300363130773882\/posts\/default\/4562623232119501194"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/8877300363130773882\/posts\/default\/4562623232119501194"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/blog.drhongtao.com\/2014\/11\/reliability.html","title":"Reliability (for Planning) and Reliability (for Forecasting)"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Tao Hong"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/09489402674214644453"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"http:\/\/img2.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}}]}});