Fall 2015 In-class Probabilistic Load Forecasting Competition

Update: The final ranking is available HERE.

The second exam of my Energy Analytics course this semester is a probabilistic load forecasting competition. The competition rules are listed below:

• The competition will start on 10/22/2015, and end on 11/25/2015. 
• The historical data will be released on 10/22/2015.
• The year-ahead hourly probabilistic load forecast is due on 11:45am ET each Wednesday starting from 10/28/2015. 
• The exam is individual effort. Each student form a single-person team. No collaboration is allowed.
• The student can not use any data other than what's provided by Dr. Tao Hong and the U.S. federal holidays.
• Pinball loss function is the error measure in this competition. 
• The benchmark will be provided by Dr. Tao Hong. A student receive no credit if not beating the benchmark nor ranking top 6 in the class. 
• No late submission is allowed. 

I would like to open this competition to students and professionals outside my class. If you are interested in joining the competition, please contact me for detailed instructions.

Recommended readings:

• Probabilistic Electric Load Forecasting: A Tutorial Review
• Long Term Probabilistic Load Forecasting and Normalization with Hourly Information